Man kunne godt forestille sig, at det er bedst at placere et fodboldbet så tæt på kampen som muligt, så man har så meget information som muligt. Men på et italiensk universitet har man lavet en analyse baseret på mere end 1,25 mio. onlinebets fra ikke-professionelle spillere, som viser det modsatte.
Konklusionen er bl.a., at den ekstra information tæt på kampen fører til et informationsoverload, som ikke-professionelle ikke kan håndtere, og det forringer deres resultat.
For dem, som ikke gider læse alle 27 sider, er her et par uddrag fra hypotesen og konklusionen:
HYPOTESE "To test our hypothesis that decision timing matters, we analyze the winning probability of bets placed in two different seasons of the Italian Major Soccer League. The dataset contains more than one million online bets.
The 7,093 individuals in our dataset are non-experts, who bet small amounts of money on multiple events to increase their potential payouts and only win if all the events happen.
Betting too early might force individuals to dismiss relevant information, such as players’ injuries that happen close to the game. On the other hand, betting late faces individuals with a large amount of information, which increases with the public relevance of the event, comes from multiple sources, and may not be easy to handle."
KONKLUSION "The relationship between betting early and winning is monotonic, as the probability of a correct forecast is larger the higher the number of days from the event, up to the maximum of 5 days.
The poorer forecasting performance of late bettors is attributed to an inefficient processing of information, which is also consistent with the heterogeneity results that we are able to disclose.
This evidence supports the hypothesis that information overload may occur; as the event becomes closer, individuals receive more information than they are able to handle, therefore increasing the probability of mistakes."
Konklusionen er bl.a., at den ekstra information tæt på kampen fører til et informationsoverload, som ikke-professionelle ikke kan håndtere, og det forringer deres resultat.
For dem, som ikke gider læse alle 27 sider, er her et par uddrag fra hypotesen og konklusionen:
HYPOTESE
"To test our hypothesis that decision timing matters, we analyze the winning probability of bets placed in two different seasons of the Italian Major Soccer League. The dataset contains more than one million online bets.
The 7,093 individuals in our dataset are non-experts, who bet small amounts of money on multiple events to increase their potential payouts and only win if all the events happen.
Betting too early might force individuals to dismiss relevant information, such as players’ injuries that happen close to the game. On the other hand, betting late faces individuals with a large amount of information, which increases with the public relevance of the event, comes from multiple sources, and may not be easy to handle."
KONKLUSION
"The relationship between betting early and winning is monotonic, as the probability of a correct forecast is larger the higher the number of days from the event, up to the maximum of 5 days.
The poorer forecasting performance of late bettors is attributed to an inefficient processing of information, which is also consistent with the heterogeneity results that we are able to disclose.
This evidence supports the hypothesis that information overload may occur; as the event becomes closer, individuals receive more information than they are able to handle, therefore increasing the probability of mistakes."
Hele analysen kan læses her:
http://www.tommasonannicini.eu…