NFL
Miami vs. San Diego
4:15 EST
Dolphins catch the Chargers in an ideal spot, off a win over division rival Raiders with the Colts up next week. With Miami 5-0 SU in the last five meetings in this series - including four SU wins as a dog - look for Oakland to drop to 4-14 SU in games after taking on the Raiders. Take the points. Take Miami over San Diego.
NFL
Chicago vs. Pittsburgh
1:00 EST
The Bears have now won eight straight games and we see no reason why that trend will not continue against and overvalued Pittsburgh team. The defense of the Bears is just too good and that gives us the confidence we need to now that this game will only be decided by a field goal. Getting over this margin makes this a strong play on the side with Bears. Take Chicago over Pittsburgh.
NFL
Giants vs. Philadelphia
1:00 EST
Here´s your first lesson in handicapping no one is ever as bad as their worst game nor are they as good as their best game. Last week the entire Country saw Philadelphia play their worst game of the season losing 42-0. Their defense actually played well limiting Seattle to just 2 real touchdown drives. The rest of the points were a result of Philadelphia´s offense turning the ball over for a quick TD. This line is so far out of whack because of that 42-0 score on Monday Night TV. Philadelphia may not win this game but the Giants will get a fight from the Eagles as this one comes down to a late FG. TAKE PHILADELPHIA.
NFL
St. Louis vs. Minnesota
1:00 EST
Why Minnesota: Minnesota QB Brad Johnson has been the savior for the team with a 5-0 SU and ATS record as the team´s starter since Daunte Culpepper went down with a knee injury. Johnson is also starting to get comfortable with a speedy group of receivers, particularly Koren Robinson, who scored on an 80-yard bomb and finished with four catches for 148 yards in a 21-16 victory at Detroit last week. Robinson was a risk going into the season due to his checkered past but is finally beginning to show his first-round talent with the Vikings after the Seahawks gave up on him. The Rams proved last week in a 24-9 loss to Washington that they can only contend with other teams that have nothing on the line (i.e. Houston) and will be no match for a Minnesota team fighting for a playoff spot..Take Minnesota.
NFL
Kansas City vs. Dallas
4:15 EST
The Chiefs (8-4) were involved in a wild shootout with the Broncos last week, as the teams racked up a combined 58 points. This week´s game at Dallas promises to be another high-scoring affair. The Cowboys (7-5) have seen the ´Over´ go 10-6 the last 16 times they faced a team with a winning record. That number improves to 8-3 when Dallas has faced a winning team during the second half of the season. The Chiefs also tend to play high-scoring games when matched up against an opponent with a winning record. Six of nine games have finished above the total when KC has played a team with a winning record during the second half of the season. The Over is also 13-6 the last 19 times that the Chiefs played a winning team overall. Additionally, the Chiefs almost always seem to play high-scoring games during the holiday season. Including last week´s result, the Over is now 5-0 since last season and a highly profitable 16-3 the last 19 times that the Chiefs played during the month of December. The Cowboys are currently listed as three-point favorites. This is noteworthy as the Over is 12-6 the last 18 times that the Cowboys played a game with a line ranging from +3 to -3, 15-8 the last 23 times that the Chiefs played a game with a pointspread in the same range, and a healthy 6-1 the last seven times that the Cowboys were home favorites of three points or less. Look for more of the same this week as both teams pile up the points. Play on the OVER.
NFL
Giants vs. Philadelphia
4:05 EST
The Eagles’ loss on Monday night has made them a team that nobody wants to bet on – at least not the average sports fan, whose opinions are based heavily on recent results rather than putting those recent games into perspective. Philadelphia is not nearly as bad as they looked in their 0-42 home loss on Monday night to Seattle. The Eagles certainly have some holes offensively with Mike McMahon at quarterback and without All- Pro back Brian Westbrook, but McMahon hasn’t been that awful in his 3 games since taking over for Donovan McNabb, averaging 5.4 yards per pass play against pretty good defensive teams that would combine to allow just 5.6 yppp to an average quarterback. The loss of Westbrook is actually a bigger problem than having to replace McNabb, who was a worse than average quarterback until Terrell Owens joined the team prior to last season. Westbrook’s loss will hurt the passing game just as much, if not more, than the rushing attack, and his value is calculated at 1.3 points per game over his replacement Lamar Gordon. With McMahon at quarterback and without Westbrook the Eagles’ offense rates at 0.5 yards per play worse than average if McMahon plays at the level that he’s played at so far this season, but McMahon should have confidence entering this game considering that he threw for 298 yards at 7.8 yppp just 3 weeks ago against the Giants in New York. McMahon has thrown more interceptions than an average quarterback during his career, which adds to their drop-off from McNabb, who has one of the lowest interception percentages in NFL history. The Eagles certainly won’t have an easy time attacking a solid Giants’ defense that is 0.4 yppl better than average (4.9 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl), but they should have a few scoring opportunities. The Eagles’ defense is the unit that is likely to keep them competitive from this point on, as that unit continues to play pretty well (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl to an average team) and didn’t have anything to do with last week’s 0-42 loss, which was all about turnovers and not about bad defense (Seattle only gained 194 yards at 3.3 yppl). The Giants are only 0.2 yppl better than average offensively (5.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team), so the Eagles match-up evenly when New York has the ball and they should be fired up to help atone for last week’s embarrassment. The math favors New York by 7 points, which is what the oddmakers posted the number at on Tuesday morning after learning of the severity of Westbrook’s injury. The pointspread has since moved to 9 points because the public remembers what they saw on Monday night and didn’t put that one bad game into proper perspective. Afterall, the Eagles were very competitive against the Giants two weeks ago (New York scored late to cover, but the Eagles out-gained the Giants 404 yards to 317 yards) and they beat the Packers the week after that before getting crushed because of a -6 in turnover margin on Monday night. The Eagles apply to a 113-60-3 ATS contrary indicator and I’ll consider the Eagles a Strong Opinion.
NFL
Chicago vs. Pittsburgh
1:00 EST
Steelers need this one badly to stay in the hunt for a wild card sport. Take Pittsburgh.
NFL
Cleveland vs. Cincinnati
1:00 EST
Not sure if anybody noticed but last week at halftime, Cleveland had 14 points and 243 yards against Jacksonville with Charlie Frye at quarterback. I have to like any total ‘OVER’ when one team is capable of sending it ‘OVER’ by themselves. That would be the Cincinnati Bengals, who have scored 37 or more points in three consecutive games. Note that two weeks ago the offensively challenged Baltimore Ravens scored 29 points against the Cincinnati defense. The Bengals might also get some easy touchdown drives as they lead the NFL with 37 takeaways including 26 interceptions. Frye has potential but he’s still a rookie making a rare road start. Cincinnati has also been successful using the no-huddle offense. In their last home game the Bengals with the Ravens went ‘OVER’ by 34 points. The home game against Indianapolis was ‘OVER’ by halftime. You know Chad Johnson has to be chomping at the bit after failing to reach the end zone last week. What’s scary about Cincinnati is the fact they’ve averaged 39 points the last three Sundays against Indianapolis, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh. All three of those teams have higher rated defenses than Cleveland. Go ´OVER´ 43 points
Miami vs. San Diego
4:15 EST
Dolphins catch the Chargers in an ideal spot, off a win over division rival Raiders with the Colts up next week. With Miami 5-0 SU in the last five meetings in this series - including four SU wins as a dog - look for Oakland to drop to 4-14 SU in games after taking on the Raiders. Take the points. Take Miami over San Diego.
NFL
Chicago vs. Pittsburgh
1:00 EST
The Bears have now won eight straight games and we see no reason why that trend will not continue against and overvalued Pittsburgh team. The defense of the Bears is just too good and that gives us the confidence we need to now that this game will only be decided by a field goal. Getting over this margin makes this a strong play on the side with Bears. Take Chicago over Pittsburgh.
NFL
Giants vs. Philadelphia
1:00 EST
Here´s your first lesson in handicapping no one is ever as bad as their worst game nor are they as good as their best game. Last week the entire Country saw Philadelphia play their worst game of the season losing 42-0. Their defense actually played well limiting Seattle to just 2 real touchdown drives. The rest of the points were a result of Philadelphia´s offense turning the ball over for a quick TD. This line is so far out of whack because of that 42-0 score on Monday Night TV. Philadelphia may not win this game but the Giants will get a fight from the Eagles as this one comes down to a late FG. TAKE PHILADELPHIA.
NFL
St. Louis vs. Minnesota
1:00 EST
Why Minnesota: Minnesota QB Brad Johnson has been the savior for the team with a 5-0 SU and ATS record as the team´s starter since Daunte Culpepper went down with a knee injury. Johnson is also starting to get comfortable with a speedy group of receivers, particularly Koren Robinson, who scored on an 80-yard bomb and finished with four catches for 148 yards in a 21-16 victory at Detroit last week. Robinson was a risk going into the season due to his checkered past but is finally beginning to show his first-round talent with the Vikings after the Seahawks gave up on him. The Rams proved last week in a 24-9 loss to Washington that they can only contend with other teams that have nothing on the line (i.e. Houston) and will be no match for a Minnesota team fighting for a playoff spot..Take Minnesota.
NFL
Kansas City vs. Dallas
4:15 EST
The Chiefs (8-4) were involved in a wild shootout with the Broncos last week, as the teams racked up a combined 58 points. This week´s game at Dallas promises to be another high-scoring affair. The Cowboys (7-5) have seen the ´Over´ go 10-6 the last 16 times they faced a team with a winning record. That number improves to 8-3 when Dallas has faced a winning team during the second half of the season. The Chiefs also tend to play high-scoring games when matched up against an opponent with a winning record. Six of nine games have finished above the total when KC has played a team with a winning record during the second half of the season. The Over is also 13-6 the last 19 times that the Chiefs played a winning team overall. Additionally, the Chiefs almost always seem to play high-scoring games during the holiday season. Including last week´s result, the Over is now 5-0 since last season and a highly profitable 16-3 the last 19 times that the Chiefs played during the month of December. The Cowboys are currently listed as three-point favorites. This is noteworthy as the Over is 12-6 the last 18 times that the Cowboys played a game with a line ranging from +3 to -3, 15-8 the last 23 times that the Chiefs played a game with a pointspread in the same range, and a healthy 6-1 the last seven times that the Cowboys were home favorites of three points or less. Look for more of the same this week as both teams pile up the points. Play on the OVER.
NFL
Giants vs. Philadelphia
4:05 EST
The Eagles’ loss on Monday night has made them a team that nobody wants to bet on – at least not the average sports fan, whose opinions are based heavily on recent results rather than putting those recent games into perspective. Philadelphia is not nearly as bad as they looked in their 0-42 home loss on Monday night to Seattle. The Eagles certainly have some holes offensively with Mike McMahon at quarterback and without All- Pro back Brian Westbrook, but McMahon hasn’t been that awful in his 3 games since taking over for Donovan McNabb, averaging 5.4 yards per pass play against pretty good defensive teams that would combine to allow just 5.6 yppp to an average quarterback. The loss of Westbrook is actually a bigger problem than having to replace McNabb, who was a worse than average quarterback until Terrell Owens joined the team prior to last season. Westbrook’s loss will hurt the passing game just as much, if not more, than the rushing attack, and his value is calculated at 1.3 points per game over his replacement Lamar Gordon. With McMahon at quarterback and without Westbrook the Eagles’ offense rates at 0.5 yards per play worse than average if McMahon plays at the level that he’s played at so far this season, but McMahon should have confidence entering this game considering that he threw for 298 yards at 7.8 yppp just 3 weeks ago against the Giants in New York. McMahon has thrown more interceptions than an average quarterback during his career, which adds to their drop-off from McNabb, who has one of the lowest interception percentages in NFL history. The Eagles certainly won’t have an easy time attacking a solid Giants’ defense that is 0.4 yppl better than average (4.9 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl), but they should have a few scoring opportunities. The Eagles’ defense is the unit that is likely to keep them competitive from this point on, as that unit continues to play pretty well (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl to an average team) and didn’t have anything to do with last week’s 0-42 loss, which was all about turnovers and not about bad defense (Seattle only gained 194 yards at 3.3 yppl). The Giants are only 0.2 yppl better than average offensively (5.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team), so the Eagles match-up evenly when New York has the ball and they should be fired up to help atone for last week’s embarrassment. The math favors New York by 7 points, which is what the oddmakers posted the number at on Tuesday morning after learning of the severity of Westbrook’s injury. The pointspread has since moved to 9 points because the public remembers what they saw on Monday night and didn’t put that one bad game into proper perspective. Afterall, the Eagles were very competitive against the Giants two weeks ago (New York scored late to cover, but the Eagles out-gained the Giants 404 yards to 317 yards) and they beat the Packers the week after that before getting crushed because of a -6 in turnover margin on Monday night. The Eagles apply to a 113-60-3 ATS contrary indicator and I’ll consider the Eagles a Strong Opinion.
NFL
Chicago vs. Pittsburgh
1:00 EST
Steelers need this one badly to stay in the hunt for a wild card sport. Take Pittsburgh.
NFL
Cleveland vs. Cincinnati
1:00 EST
Not sure if anybody noticed but last week at halftime, Cleveland had 14 points and 243 yards against Jacksonville with Charlie Frye at quarterback. I have to like any total ‘OVER’ when one team is capable of sending it ‘OVER’ by themselves. That would be the Cincinnati Bengals, who have scored 37 or more points in three consecutive games. Note that two weeks ago the offensively challenged Baltimore Ravens scored 29 points against the Cincinnati defense. The Bengals might also get some easy touchdown drives as they lead the NFL with 37 takeaways including 26 interceptions. Frye has potential but he’s still a rookie making a rare road start. Cincinnati has also been successful using the no-huddle offense. In their last home game the Bengals with the Ravens went ‘OVER’ by 34 points. The home game against Indianapolis was ‘OVER’ by halftime. You know Chad Johnson has to be chomping at the bit after failing to reach the end zone last week. What’s scary about Cincinnati is the fact they’ve averaged 39 points the last three Sundays against Indianapolis, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh. All three of those teams have higher rated defenses than Cleveland. Go ´OVER´ 43 points