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Analyse af La Primera (lørdag) - på engelsk

Hej.. Jeg er primært bruger inden på en engelsk betting-portal, hvor jeg er aktiv omkring den spanske liga! Jeg har set på dagens kampe i La liga, og fundet følgende - godt nok på engelsk! Men god læsning..

>Cadiz-Sevilla>

Sevilla: Marti, Fabiano is out

Cadiz: Suarez out, Estoyanoff hasn’t practised all week and is doubtful

This is a very difficult game. Cadiz is without doubt improving. Results and their game has improved much and if they can continue this rhythm they will survive in La liga. The big problem for Cadiz is that they often play well, but don’t necessary win. They can surely win this match, but too much depends on Sevilla as they have a better side.

A lot of people (including me), was surprised with the defeat against Osasuna. We have seen some strange matches from the Sevilla side this season, and they are just too unstabile at the moment.
The replacement of Marti, Jordi Lopez is not that much worse and I don’t think it will make a huge difference.

I don’t really fancy a pick in this match, as Cadiz is in good form lately, but playing a better team which can play as day & night.

No bet for me

>Osasuna-Zaragoza>

Osasuna:Romero and Romeo sanctioned losses, Valdo, Webo injured

ZaragozaJimenez, Cuartero, Savio injured
Zapater, Chus Herrero sanctioned

One of the most interesting matches this round. Both teams looking in good form last round, especially Zaragoza trashing the Galaticos!! Osasuna coming from a nice win at San Pizjuan after a bit of a down-trend. Having some loss in attack (meaning Raul Garcia will play in attack), and from my point of view it all comes down to the Milosevic-effect. How vital is it? No doubt that he is a great hitman up front, but with the lack of players, and Raul Garcia not playing in the middle, I don’t think that the Milosevic-effect will improve the team. Moha coming back, but will play in right side. He is capable of doing so, but still he’s more dangerous in the left side. Last match Romeo was available and I just prefer Raul Garcia in the middle.

Its impressing to watch the Zaragoza side playing at the moment. Cani, Ewerthon and D. Milito look like they can tear any defence to pieces. But it doesn’t look like an easy thing to do against Osasuna. There has only been scored 9 goals against Osasuna at Reyno de Navarra. Zaragoza is looking at a great run only losing once in their last 9 La Liga matches, and with great results in Copa del Rey. They are not really looking at great losses in their first eleven. The main thing for Zaragoza is whether the players are in bad condition after the Madrid-match. It will be a slight worsement for the team, but its really impossible to measure this variable. Munõz will properly put one of Ewerthon/D. Milito on the bench, and give S. Garcia a starting place. Furthermore it looks like Movilla will start in the middle instead of Celades, which played from start against Real Madrid.

I like the way Zaragoza is playing at the moment and worth a small stake, especially as I see them scoring at least once in this match.

I rate Zaragoza at 60 % for the X2, and think this have some value with the odds at 1,79.

Pick: Zaragoza +0,5 ; stake: 4 units ; Odds: 1,79


>Athletic-Real>

Real: Helguera, Meijia and Beckham out

Athletic: Yeste sanctioned, Tiko, Etxeberria out

Athletic not really performing at the moment and with a bad result last week against Malaga. With the players missing tonight Athletics first eleven looks much worse. Both players are key players! Yeste not really performing at the level from last season, but still a quality and very creative player. Normally Athletic is Real Madrid superior in San Mames, but Real Madrid won the last match here in the Cup. Quite lucky, but in the Real Madrid-style (playing bad and winning lucky). Its surely to Athletics advantage playing home, but the squad doesn’t look good to me.

Real Madrid must be a bit fragile against Bilbao with the humiliating defeat against Zaragoza. Ronaldo, Guti, Baptista, Helguera… yeah almost everyone was crap. Especially Ronaldo is no good for the team with his lack of commitment on the pitch, and as he’ll properly will be fielded tonight, it looks like an easy night for the Athletic defense keeping him out of the game.
A positive thing though is that Cicinho will start in right middle due to Beckhams absence. This looks good to me, as he is challenging his opponents much more + adding pace to Real Madrids game. R. Bravo will properly start instead of Roberto Carlos

We all know that Real Madrid sould be much motivated for this match. Barcelona could easily lose tomorrow without Ronaldinho plus more. Combined with a Real Madrid victory, the los Merengues would only be 7 points away from Barca. But I have learnt one thing in the last couple of years… you cannot predict motivation for the Galacticos.

I see two scenarios for Real Madrid.
1) As we saw in the Copa del Ray match at San Mames, Real Madrid will not play well, but win, because they got quality players who can win tight matches. They will be lucky and not dominate the match.

2) After the loss to Zaragoza in the Copa del Ray final in 2004, Real Madrid side almost fell apart with some very strange losses. The side looked fragile and not interested in winning matches after the defeat. Maybe the same thing will happen?? – and Real will lose again??

I don’t think that the second scenario is that realistic (maybe in symbolic terms, but….). Real Madrid will properly win playing bad as we have seen them for some time now.

The odds are not interesting. I cant find any value here, and I cannot predict any outcome here.¨

No bet for me.

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